According to the source, a social post dated 2025-12-11 claims Bitcoin (BTC) is not reacting to Federal Reserve guidance but provides no charts or figures to verify the claim. source: Twitter post referenced by user dated 2025-12-11 To validate any BTC–Fed divergence, first review the latest FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), and Powell press conference transcript to quantify rate-path and liquidity signals that typically drive crypto beta. source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, federalreserve.gov FOMC materials Cross-check real-time BTC spot and perpetual futures metrics—basis, funding rate, open interest, and liquidations—plus correlations to DXY and U.S. 2-year Treasury yields; a genuine divergence is indicated when BTC holds gains while DXY and 2y yields rise and funding remains flat to positive. source: TradingView BTCUSD; ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY); U.S. Treasury daily yield rates at home.treasury.gov; Binance/Bybit futures statistics pages For trade planning, track the prior FOMC-day high/low, 20/50-day EMAs, 200-day SMA, and 30-day realized volatility; a breakout with expanding volume and rising cumulative volume delta improves continuation odds, while failure back inside the range favors mean reversion. source: TradingView technical indicators; Deribit and CME crypto volatility data Manage risk by sizing to volatility (for example, 1x ATR stop distance) and pre-marking macro calendar catalysts (CPI, PCE, jobless claims) that can invert correlations intraday. source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI schedule (bls.gov); Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE calendar (bea.gov); U.S. Department of Labor weekly claims (dol.gov)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Fed’s Trade Weighted Real Broad Dollar Index is sitting near a 40-year high, underscoring historically strong USD conditions. According to the Federal Reserve Board H.10 data, this real broad index tracks the inflation-adjusted value of the USD against a trade-weighted basket of 26 currencies and current readings remain at multi-decade extremes. According to research from the Bank for International Settlements and the Federal Reserve, sustained USD appreciation tightens global financial conditions and can pressure dollar-denominated risk assets by reducing global liquidity. According to Kaiko market data, BTC and ETH have generally exhibited a negative correlation with the US dollar index in recent cycles, implying potential headwinds for crypto performance if USD strength persists.